FLHurricane.com: Watching the Western Caribbean...

8PM Thursday Update
Active tropical wave, with perhaps a weak mid-level circulation, centered just off the northeast borders of Nicaragua/Honduras should move to the west northwest toward northern Belize. Shows some signs of improving outflow to the north, but windshear of 30-35kts just north of the wave is expected to remain at that strength for the next couple of days. Pretty low on the development scale, but we'll watch it for awhile.

Honduras

Weak non-tropical low about stationary just off Jacksonville, Florida, is forecast to elongate and weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours. Windshear over the system is light and forecasted to stay that way, but convection was minimal today - a long shot at best.
ED

Florida

8AM Saturday Update
This system has moved east, and never did the northwestern jog talked about, It's chance to develop in the Caribbean or Gulf is gone, and it's become more of a trough of low pressure. It did not show any signs of development yesterday and still isn't this morning.

It is likely nothing will happen with this system. Behind it, nothing else really has much potential to develop. June is usually a fairly quiet month and activity doesn't start to pick up until late July or August. Despite having two named systems already this year, it's climatologically likely that it will be slow for the rest of this month. We'll be watching, however.

Original Update
An disturbed weather area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea has kicked up enough for the Hurricane Center to consider flying aircraft into it tomorrow, and we'll be watching it from here.

Currently, the winds in the upper atmosphere aren't really conductive for development, but it may change. If this area of low pressure persists into later tomorrow, the winds relax and the potential for development is greater. However, it is projected to drift northwest over the tip of the Yucatan in the short term, so that would also prevent Development from occurring.

Most models have it moving into the Gulf and Florida and the central to eastern Gulf states will want to be watching to see how much, if any, this develops. More rain will be involved at the very least.

More to come as more is learned.

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Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Jun 21 2007 09:53 PM)

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