FLHurricane.com: POWERFUL TYPHOON USAGI - Japan Seriously Threatened

Even as the Atlantic Basic is starting to percolate with rapidly developing Invest 99L and the christening of Tropical Storm Chantel just moments ago, so too, are the Pacific Basins becoming increasingly active.

Typhoon USAGI, which formed just north of the Marianas and might well be the Regenerated Cosme Remnant from the EastPac after it crossed over the International Date Line and into warmer waters, continues to intensify as it closes in on Japan.

Instead of recurving off towards the NE before making landfall in Japan, as earlier forecast, it now seems to be headed for a landfall in extreme SW Japan as a powerful 115 Kt. typhoon, and perhaps even affecting South Korea.

The weakness in the ridge forecasted several days ago was not as pronounced as earlier modeled, and each successive run showed Usagis' track more and more to the left, bringing it over mainland Japan. At least Tokyo and Kyoto are now no longer expected to feel the worst, as earlier anticipated.

Judging from several good consecutive overpasses from microwave imaging satellites, Usagi appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, before making it's bid to become a major typhoon as it churns on it's way towards SW Japan. You may view the *attachment* (above) for an excellent microwave view of the eyewall contracting as it continues to rapidly intensify.

As I speculated in my last post, the 'potent' appearance of what was then a minimal tropical storm, with it's very impressive CDO feature was, indeed, the precursor of an 'explosive deepening' cyclone, just as I had surmised.

It took Usage just 6 (!) hours in strengthening from a 35 Kt. Tropical Storm to a 65 Kt. Typhoon. It's now up to 90 Kts., on its' way to a forecasted maximum of 120 Kts., which I suspect might be still a bit conservative. You know how tricky intensity forecasting can be at times; one of the real remaining challenges in predicting hurricanes / typhoons.

For the latest info / images / track of what could well become a Major Typhoon, please view the NRL website at ...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../track_vis/dmsp

... and, of course, the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), now located in Honolulu, at ...

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php ...

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PS: For the latest NEWS on Usagi, I suggest going to Google News (use the 'News' link on the main Google page) and typing 'Typhoon Usagi' as your keywords. I'm sure you'll continue to get lots! more hits in the coming days.)

Here's a few, for starters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUST901920070731

http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=47762 (interesting military perspective)

http://www.saipantribune.com/newsstory.aspx?newsID=70874&cat=1

and http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/T296815.htm

... but keep checking for the latest news as Usagi nears landfall and the aftermath.

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PSS: Latest developments before I sign off: Usagi was just upgraded to 105 Kts. Apparently, the eyewall replacement cycle, mentioned above, has completed and the newly-organized inner core convective ring (eyewall) has just substantially lowered the minimum central pressure sufficiently to cause an additional 15 Kt. increase in sustained winds.

(View the attachment above, taken a few hours before eyewall replacement completed. Note the new eyewall contracting and replacing the old one.)

At this rate, I don't think that 'Super-Typhoon' strength is out of the question, before all is said and done.

Keep an eye on Powerful Usagi to see what happens in Japan and, perhaps, South Korea as well.

Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Aug 01 2007 08:03 AM)

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