FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Erick Bucks the Shear

PLEASE NOTE: Invest 99E was upgraded to TD-8E this morning Hawaii time, July 31st and then to Tropical Storm 'Erick', 6 hours later. See the following replies for the progress of Erick as it heads west towards the Central Pacific Basin.

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Invest 99E, about halfway between Mexico and Hawaii, continues to plug along, with its well defined 1008 mb low embedded in the associated westward-moving wave.

The moderate easterly shear of the past few days from an upper-level anticyclone to its' north, which has consistently displaced the convection to the west of the LLC, is now forecast to lessen with time, and the NHC/TPC is giving this disturbance a pretty fair shot at additional development over the next few days.

And this mornings' diurnal convective maximum (local basin time) is producing an impressive flare-up of very strong and deep thunderstorms, although still confined to the western semi-circle.

However, there are hints of Towering Cu and a few small Cb cells forming in tight curved bands close to the LLC, which may be an indicator that the shear is beginning to relax just a tad.

And! There is *plenty* of low-level moisture surging into the area from the south and southwest, which shows up really well on the time-lapse IR satellite loops. We'll see if this trend continues into the coming daylight hours as the shear slowly weakens. Here's the usual 6 hour IR loop from UH's weather server:

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

(Hint: I like to click 'rock' for a 'back-and-forth' effect and slow it down a little, to better visualize convective trends. And, of course, there are links for the Atlantic basin, as well, so feel free to view this servers' unique images of storms in the Atlantic basin in the coming months!)

Invest 99E is currently in the area where Cosme formed a few weeks ago, and I've a feeling that we may well see a repeat, shear permitting, of another development into a storm in the coming days.

Systems that form about 1/2 way between Mexico and Hawaii are generally more closely watched in the Islands, as they have a greater chance of paying a visit to the Islands than those forming further east.

We'll see what becomes of 99E in the coming days, just as the Atlantic is starting to 'heat up' as well. More later ...

Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Aug 01 2007 09:22 AM)

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