FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Flossie Heads for Hawaii

Meanwhile, an interesting disturbance / wave in the central EastPac basin is beginning to look more and more organized by the hour. It's quite possible that this wave originated somewhere in the Atlantic basin a week or more ago.

A 1008 mb low embedded on the wave is producing pronounced low-level turning and the convection, displaced to the south of an exposed LLC yesterday, is now beginning to be covered over by the deep convection, all the while gradually becoming more organized.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

... and ...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp

Forming in about the same area where Cosme and Erick did over the past few weeks, I now see that there is a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) in effect for this wave, so apparently they are expecting something to become of this system.

As I mentioned in a previous post, systems that form 120W, or farther west, are of greater interest to Hawaii than storms forming closer to Mexico. All storms that form here usually head "in the general direction" of the Hawaiian Islands, although very few arrive with much punch left in them after crossing over slightly cooler waters and, more importantly, SW shear that usually protects these Islands from incursions of marauding cyclones from the EastPac.

Also, the 'Erick' remnant is now passing south of the islands as I write, and NRL/NHC even had an invest (91C) on Ericks' possible regeneration for a while yesterday, but it has since been dropped, as convection has dissipated tonight into an amorphous mass of debris clouds.

But as long as some low-level vorticity remains, it may still re-develop as it heads towards warmer waters, if the expected shear isn't too much for it. Like the Cosme remnant that formed into Typhoon Usagi last week, it may develop into a Western Pacific typhoon in a week or so, after crossing over the dateline and entering into a more favorable environment.

But of more concern (interest) is Invest 91E which, if it does develop, will become christened "Flossie".

As an aside, I thought the name "Flossie" was retired (1956), but as it turns out, that storm was spelled "Flossy"

"Sept 24-25, 1956 : "Hurricane Flossy" struck Louisiana and submerged Grand Isle. New Orleans was flooded including its now famous 9th Ward. The hurricane later turned east to Ft. Walton Beach, Fl where it made another landfall. The storm caused millions of dollars in damages with 15 casualties."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Flossy_(1956) <---- More details on Flossy (So apparently, the levees were over-topped and the lower 9th ward was flooded even before Betsy did so in 1965!)

And if Flossie becomes a Hurricane (Not saying at this point that it will!) it'd be ONLY the 2nd Hurricane of the northern hemisphere so far this season.

So far, there's only been Hurricane Cosme !! Just ONE(!) hurricane so far.

Amazing. Especially for the Eastern Pacific, the 2nd most active basin in the world! Far below Climatological averages.

However, it seems likely that, with the TCFA, we'll soon have a depression or storm to follow as this system heads westward and towards the Central Pacific basin. Keep y'all posted!

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