FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Flossie Heads for Hawaii

Well, I've been away for a day and look what's happened!

The wave / low I mentioned in my first post did finally organize into TD-9E which, on the very next advisory, was upgraded to Tropical Storm Flossie.

Link to the visible "Flossie Floater" complements of the good folks at the Satellite Services Division of NOAA:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

The 3rd advisory is just out (issued 11pm Wednesday, Hawaii time and 5am Thursday, Florida time) , and Flossie has been increased again, now to 45 Kts, and is expected to become 'Hurricane Flossie' briefly, before drawing a bead on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.

Here's a few excerpted discussions from the NHC advisories that have been issued thus far:

"FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ... SSTS ARE PLENTY WARM WITH CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES AROUND 28C."

So it appears we have a good thermodynamic environment, at least in the short term.

"THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM ... FLOSSIE COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO..."

If Flossie makes it to Hurricane status it'll be only the 2nd (!) to form so far this year. Quite below the normal for the EastPac basin for this time of year, well into August already.

"THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE."

It should be noted that it's exactly this 'gradual turn' as it approaches the western-most extent of the ridge which will bring it quite close to, or over, the Islands, according to current thinking, assuming the 'end' of the ridge behaves as currently projected, which can be a pretty fickle thing to forecast that far into the future.

You may view the attachment (above link) to see how Flossie's track arcs directly towards the islands. Thankfully, it will be on a weakening trend by then as it travels over slightly cooler waters and will likely become a minimal tropical storm or, even better, just a depression or remnant low before arriving in Hawaiian waters. Let's just hope this will be the case.

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And speaking of remnant lows, there's a quite impressive, fairly large swirl of clouds upwind in the trade flow that is presently making a bee-line for the islands. This feature is the remnant low of an eastern pacific invest from a week or so ago. Long dropped as an invest as it moved over cooler waters, it has now traveled over a thousand miles and appears to be 'juicing up' again as it moves over slightly warmer waters as it approaches the islands riding along in the trade winds.

Although completely devoid of deep convection presently, the night time diurnal cycle is clearly making its' presence known in the form of a greatly improved satellite signature and associated shower activity. I would hazard to guess that there's a pretty good amount of rather 'generous' trade-like showers swirling about this rather healthy-looking remnant low even though, as I mentioned, it is currently lacking any thunderstorm activity.

It's expected to arrive a few days before Flossie, so the Islands could see some decent rainfall, in the form of frequent passing tradewind-like showers, some of which could be pretty generous, even before Flossie brings in heavier and more wide-spread rains, assuming she stays more or less on her presently forecasted track.

Here's an excellent link that's centered on the Hawaiian Islands and showing this rather juicy remnant low plunging head-long towards the islands, firmly entrenched in the tradewind flow. (You can also see Tropical Storm Flossie, entering the theater, stage right.)

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

The coming week or so should be interesting in Hawaii, weather-wise.

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