FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Flossie Heads for Hawaii

Note: Just as I was about to post this (composing off-line), I noticed the above post. Thank you vpbob21 for your well written and succinct perspective. I wish I had your flair for conciseness.

And now for an expanded perspective, here is my usual verbose blather:

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Flossie rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Major Hurricane.

Upgraded in the early morning hours to 100 Kts (115 mph) and to 'Major' Cat 3 status, it has further strengthened during the day and is now churning the Central Pacific at an amazing 115 Kts. (132 mph).

The clearly defined eye has just crossed over 140W and the next advisory (11am Hawaii, 5pm Florida) will be issued by the CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center), co-located with the NWS Honolulu Forecast Office at the University of Hawaii at Manoa Campus.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/

I think the Intensity forecast, and what actually happened over the past 24 to 48 hours, has really surprised everyone, especially the good folks at the NHC in Miami, who just issued their final advisory before handing off responsibilities to the CPHC.

I've mentioned several times in earlier posts this season how downright tricky intensity forecasting can sometimes be. For several advisories just 2 days ago, Flossie wasn't even expected to reach hurricane status, after saying that it would in several previous advisories. But the easterly shear never materialized and despite only marginal SST's, the shear has remained quite low and the upper outflow patterns have been good to now excellent.

And what had been mostly a single 'barrel' of inner core convection for most of the last 24 to 36 hours, has now broken out into numerous intense rainbands in all quadrants. Amazing how these mesoscale features sprout out so quickly and morph as they wrap around and spiral inward. It's quite obvious the storm is quickly expanding.

Check out some of these latest visible satellite animations for an excellent example of an explosively deepening hurricane. Note the rapid transformations in the outer rainband structures, presumably triggered by an expanding wind field as hurricane and tropical storm force winds expand outward as this powerful cyclone has just deepened by an impressive 40 mb in a mere 22 hours, going from 65 Kts. to 115 Kts. in that time.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

Flossie may be maxing out today and is certainly doing all she can to expand her radius of storm force winds which would leave remaining a large 'circulation envelope', even as it drops back to a tropical storm in a few days (thankfully!).

The next advisory (and the first from the CPHC) should be revealing. Flossies' future track and intensity depend greatly on the extent of a weakness forecast in the ridge to the north of it's projected path and the amount of shear that actually materializes which will knock it down to tropical storm strength as it passes (hopefully) just south of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week.

I'm sure you'll hear a lot more about Hurricane Flossie in the coming days on the National News and there's a ton of links (and growing) through Google News, ect., for those interested in following this developing storm situation.

Since the Atlantic basin remains quite (for now!) I thought most of you would like to check out Powerful Flossie and follow along on this very real 'major' hurricanes' progress and it's potential threat to the Islands.

Please feel free to add to the post with any thoughts you might have, whether about the storms' structure or it's possible future and evolution as it nears the islands. Although not in your 'Native Basin' you're still very welcome to join in and add to the flavor of the 'Other Basins' forum!

And for some 'eye candy' for you all today, please view the attachment (the link near the title of this post) for a spectacular QuikScat image of Flossie at 115 Kts. Keep in mind that QuikScat does not measure or display winds over 60 Kts, but it's still a very interesting and intensely colorful image. Enjoy!

Warm Aloha Greetings from Honolulu - Norm

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