FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Flossie Heads for Hawaii

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it seems that the Islands may see a slightly closer and slightly stronger passage from Flossie than previously expected.

Intensity-wise, no great news to report either, as Flossie has maintained a steady 115 Kts. (135 mph) or minimum Cat 4 hurricane status all day Sunday. Flossie is now maintaining itself as a fully matured, steady state hurricane, soaking up all that oceanic heat content it travels over and churning the open ocean with unbelievably intense winds and waves.

Remember that a min. Cat 4 exerts about 250 times (!) the force, per square foot, than a min. Cat 1. (See my "Hurricane Wind Loading" post, under the "Hurricane Ask/Tell" Forum.)

The latest advisory has been issued (11pm Hawaii, 5am Florida) by the good folks at the CPHC, and here's a few paragraphs from their latest discussion.

>> "THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THIS HURRICANE WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...AND THE APPROXIMATELY 20 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL."

The eyewall had warmed somewhat on Sunday afternoon/evening, local basin time, and the width of the eyewall convection has decreased, as well.

But! In the past few hours (now about 1am HST as I write) we're now entering into our diurnal convective max (not too sure how much effect this has on a powerful, fully matured cyclone like Flossie), a very intense swatch of convection has again flared in the SE semi-circle and has widened considerably, and has now succeeded in wraping around the entire eyewall to provide an impressive satellite presentation of a powerful annular hurricane.

And since SST's remain supportive (for now) and the outflow pattern remains "impressive" (for now) with no sign yet of the shear, and, should the current trend of eyewall convection continue unabated for at least a few more hours, I wouldn't be too surprised to Flossie bump back up to 120 or 125 Kts. This Major Hurricane still shows no sign of abating, where some is surely needed, and soon!

Unfortunately, *more* bad news. Read on:

>> "THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE IMPACT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO FEEL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS."

So hopefully, here comes the shear, once again, to the rescue ...

>> "THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY WINDS...WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING THE **FUTURE TRACK** AND INTENSITY OF FLOSSIE.

And, reasoning from a previous advisory, a weaker storm would be 'steered' more WNW and pass a hundred miles or so south of the Big Island. On the other hand, a stronger storm (eg: hurricane strength) would more likely 'feel' the effects of the upper level winds and be 'drawn up' and 'steered' more towards the NW, taking it perilously close to the Island chain.

... so, following this line of reasoning ...

>> "RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS SHEAR MAY BE LESS THAN WAS EXPECTED IN THE RUNS MADE 24 HOURS AGO. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ( and hence eventual track ) FOR FLOSSIE REMAINS UNCERTAIN."

Other tidbits of interest: (and of course, you can always use google news, etc. for the latest webnews stories, and good ol' cable, CNN, Fox, etc., to follow along on this very serious developing storm situation )

- The Air Fore Reconn Hurricane Hunters have arrived in Honolulu Sunday and have made their first flights into Flossie, beginning early Sunday afternoon, Hawaii time.

- The CPHC meteorologists, lead by Director Jim Weyland, are coordinating with the Navy's JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center, now based in Pearl Harbor after moving here from Guam) with regard to analyzing and forecasting Flossie, and the aforementioned Air Force Hurricane Hunters.

- A team if 16 FEMA 'specialists' are being dispatched to Honolulu from Oakland, California, presumably for relief coordination, should the storm inflict the need for assistance from FEMA.

- Presumably, the National News teams will be flying in reporters to cover the story, especially if Flossie remains strong and encroaches ever so closer.

- A Hurricane Warning has just been posted, as of 11pm Sunday, for Offshore Waters south of the Big Island, in Flossies' projected path.

- A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for the Big Island within the next 6 to 12 hours.

Frankly, all this is beginning to give me a rather queasy feeling and a growing sense of unease. My intuition is trying to telegraph me that we may be in for more than we bargained for, when all is said and done.

Please pray folks, that the shear will arrive on time and be Strong! to take the "Hawaiian Punch" out of Flossies Luau Spoiler.

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