FLHurricane.com: NOGAPS and Dean

First a gripe before another question in this same line.......the mods want us to post questions here instead of in the news talkback, but I am seeing that questions posted here just get ignored. This is NOT encouraging me to post questions here............

New Question: A lot is being made of the fact that the current long-range models on Dean are 'in good consensus' about his path 3-5 days out. I am wondering how much of that consensus is due to Dean's fast forward motion at this point. The slower a storm is moving, the wider the spread on the models and I would think that Dean HAS to slow down at some point or it will never make Cat 4 (I would think Cat 3 would be hard to achieve at 24mph!!). It has always seemed to me that most models don't predict these changes well even when they are predicting a slower forward speed. I guess what I am asking is, how much more spread the models would be if Dean's forward speed dropped to a more reasonable 14-16 mph. Right now, I am well outside the cone in the Tampa area, but now will be the time of what I call "cone creep". I am trying to gauge our level of safety here. This is important as I have my student returning on Monday and much to do this weekend.....

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