FLHurricane.com: Dean and the ULL

My question relates to the potential interaction between Dean and the upper level low over the Bahamas.

Just about everything I know about hurricanes, I've learned from this board

, and I've read the posts on this issue, including Clark's blog entry earlier today.

Here's where I'm still confused:

Ridges push storms west; lows/troughs pull storms north -- I got that much, at least.

So if the ULL moves into the GOM ahead of Dean, why does the forecast pull Dean only moderately to the right and into TX/LA. In other words, why doesn't the low recurve Dean into Florida or the eastern GOM?

I suspect it has something to do with the intensity of the low v. the intensity of Dean, but if anyone can explain this in more detail, I'd appreciate it.

Second question -- if the ULL ends up having little or no affect on Dean, what will then be the primary steering mechanism?

Thanks!

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Allison

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