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Ed Dunham Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017) Reged: Sun Posts: 2565 Loc: Melbourne, FL Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season       Sun Apr 06 2008 11:17 AM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   SST outlooks for ENSO region 3.4 continue to suggest a rather strong La Nina persisting through October. The average May/June/July anomaly is expected to be about -1.3C - which is a bit stronger than the previous projection of -1.0C. This would put 2008 on par with 1988 as one of the strongest pre-season (M/J/J) La Nina events ever recorded. SST forecasts for July/August/September continue to anticipate a strong La Nina of at least -1.0C with Atlantic SSTs running slightly below normal during this same period for the entire north Atlantic tropical basin - except for a slightly above normal area off the west coast of Africa. A high activity season (14 or more named storms) would be a most unusual event under these conditions. The analog years have been adjusted a bit, but not much. In order of precedence the best analog years seem to be: 1971: 13/6/1 1999: 12/8/5 1974: 11/4/2 1950: 13/11/8 No change from my earlier forecast of 12/7/3. Also no change in my previously anticipated threat areas. I'll keep this thread open through May 31st for those of you who might still wish to include or revise your own forecasts for the 2008 season. Include your rational if you wish, however it is not required. Cheers, ED Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham Sun Apr 06 2008 11:17 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season cieldumort   Sun May 25 2008 06:32 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hootie Hoo   Mon May 26 2008 02:11 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Tue Apr 22 2008 07:38 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Tue Apr 22 2008 08:26 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season John C   Tue May 27 2008 06:51 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed in Va   Tue May 27 2008 07:37 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season GlenJohnson   Wed May 28 2008 07:49 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season MichaelA   Wed May 28 2008 12:05 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HCW   Sat May 31 2008 02:58 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Doombot!   Thu May 22 2008 04:30 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Lamar-Plant City   Fri May 23 2008 10:10 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Hobbyist   Sun Apr 13 2008 02:00 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season leetdan   Tue Apr 22 2008 11:15 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season DMFischer   Mon Apr 07 2008 11:36 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Sun Apr 06 2008 11:17 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Sat May 24 2008 12:57 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Mon May 26 2008 08:17 PM Outlook for the 2008 Season - June Update Ed Dunham   Fri Jun 06 2008 01:10 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season MikeC   Tue May 27 2008 10:43 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season ftlaudbob   Tue May 27 2008 03:28 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Clark   Sat May 24 2008 10:02 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season scottsvb   Sun May 25 2008 02:49 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season allan   Sat May 24 2008 01:45 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 09 2008 01:26 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season doug   Thu Apr 10 2008 03:39 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season beachcrafts   Fri Apr 04 2008 11:32 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Sat Apr 05 2008 10:28 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season madmumbler   Wed Apr 02 2008 06:06 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season typhoon_tip   Mon Mar 31 2008 11:28 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season twistergirl1980   Thu Mar 27 2008 04:32 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season bailey   Wed Mar 26 2008 11:20 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season jessiej   Mon Mar 03 2008 08:33 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Psyber   Fri Mar 07 2008 12:47 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season M.A.   Sun Mar 16 2008 02:53 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HURRICANELONNY   Sun Mar 16 2008 05:58 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HanKFranK   Sun Mar 16 2008 07:45 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Tak   Sat Mar 22 2008 05:58 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Bloodstar   Mon Mar 03 2008 06:01 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season cieldumort   Wed Feb 27 2008 02:23 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Robert A   Mon Feb 25 2008 08:30 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Bulldg24   Sat Feb 23 2008 10:04 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Hunter   Sun Feb 24 2008 02:38 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season ftlaudbob   Mon Feb 25 2008 02:01 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Mon Feb 25 2008 03:59 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season clyde w.   Fri Jan 25 2008 05:18 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season doug   Fri Feb 01 2008 11:50 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season saluki   Fri Feb 01 2008 02:00 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Fri Feb 01 2008 08:49 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Cat 5orBust   Sat Feb 16 2008 02:36 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Cooper   Sun Jan 13 2008 05:55 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Myles   Sun Jan 13 2008 06:59 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season NewWatcher   Mon Jan 14 2008 01:13 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season B.C.Francis   Tue Jan 15 2008 02:49 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season EMS   Tue Jan 15 2008 09:01 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season mrcorkdork800   Tue Jan 15 2008 11:17 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season allan   Wed Jan 16 2008 02:33 PM

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