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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season
      Tue Apr 22 2008 07:38 PM

Recent trends in the forecasts indicate that the May/June/July average ENSO SST anomalies are not going to be anything close to the previous outlooks, with a current strong La Nina slowly evolving into a neutral state or even a weak El Nino by the end of the hurricane season. The M/J/J average ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly now looks more like -0.6C - quite a change from the earlier forecast of about -1.3C. Although the La Nina six month forecast is now hinting at a slight intensification (cooling) during May and June, a warming again occurs over the next three months (July - September). The Gulf of Mexico forecast is still expected to be slightly below normal from June through September, however, the northern tropical Atlantic is now expected to be slightly above normal - especially during July and August. While the details of a particular month may be insignificant, the trend is still worth monitoring over the next couple of months.

These new trends suggested that it was time to revisit SST climatology to determine analog years that had similar trends and values. 1999 was dropped from the analog list because in that year the La Nina actually restrengthened during the season. That recooling could certainly happen this year but right now that doesn't seem to be a likely scenario. With the anticipation of a less significant pre-season La Nina, a few other years were added to the analog list. In priority order, here is the restructured list of analog years for this season:

1985 - 11/7/3 (quite similar to the current and expected pattern)
1974 - 11/4/2 (similar)
2000 - 15/8/3 (2008 not expected to be quite as weak as 2000)
1971 - 13/6/1 (2008 not expected to increase like 1971)
1950 - 13/11/8 (2008 overall La Nina not as strong as 1950)
1989 - 11/7/2 (strength and flow pattern not likely to be similar)

It is worth noting that in 1985 there were 7 hurricanes - and 6 of them made landfall in the United States. The high risk forecast by CSU et al for U.S. hurricane landfall this season seems to be realistic. The analogs still don't suggest a hyperactive season, but they do suggest the possibility of a more dangerous one. No change from my earlier outlook for 12/7/3.
ED

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue Apr 22 2008 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season cieldumort   Sun May 25 2008 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hootie Hoo   Mon May 26 2008 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Apr 22 2008 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Tue Apr 22 2008 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season John C   Tue May 27 2008 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed in Va   Tue May 27 2008 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season GlenJohnson   Wed May 28 2008 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season MichaelA   Wed May 28 2008 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HCW   Sat May 31 2008 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Doombot!   Thu May 22 2008 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Lamar-Plant City   Fri May 23 2008 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Hobbyist   Sun Apr 13 2008 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season leetdan   Tue Apr 22 2008 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season DMFischer   Mon Apr 07 2008 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Apr 06 2008 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 24 2008 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon May 26 2008 08:17 PM
. * * Outlook for the 2008 Season - June Update Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 06 2008 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season MikeCAdministrator   Tue May 27 2008 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season ftlaudbob   Tue May 27 2008 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Clark   Sat May 24 2008 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season scottsvb   Sun May 25 2008 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season allan   Sat May 24 2008 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 09 2008 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season doug   Thu Apr 10 2008 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season beachcrafts   Fri Apr 04 2008 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Sat Apr 05 2008 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season madmumbler   Wed Apr 02 2008 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season typhoon_tip   Mon Mar 31 2008 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season twistergirl1980   Thu Mar 27 2008 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season bailey   Wed Mar 26 2008 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season jessiej   Mon Mar 03 2008 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Psyber   Fri Mar 07 2008 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season M.A.   Sun Mar 16 2008 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HURRICANELONNY   Sun Mar 16 2008 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HanKFranK   Sun Mar 16 2008 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Tak   Sat Mar 22 2008 05:58 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Bloodstar   Mon Mar 03 2008 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season cieldumort   Wed Feb 27 2008 02:23 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Robert A   Mon Feb 25 2008 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Bulldg24   Sat Feb 23 2008 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Hunter   Sun Feb 24 2008 02:38 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season ftlaudbob   Mon Feb 25 2008 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Mon Feb 25 2008 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season clyde w.   Fri Jan 25 2008 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season doug   Fri Feb 01 2008 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season saluki   Fri Feb 01 2008 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Fri Feb 01 2008 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Cat 5orBust   Sat Feb 16 2008 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Cooper   Sun Jan 13 2008 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Myles   Sun Jan 13 2008 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season NewWatcher   Mon Jan 14 2008 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season B.C.Francis   Tue Jan 15 2008 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season EMS   Tue Jan 15 2008 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season mrcorkdork800   Tue Jan 15 2008 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season allan   Wed Jan 16 2008 02:33 PM

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