FLHurricane.com: Carribean Predictions

Allrighty, now that some models are going with the GFS on this possible system, I'm making a forum on it. Now that I have seen agreement with the NOGAPS, now somewhat the CMC (still getting around there), and the GFS, I have a higher confidence that it might actually form by the end of the week. Right now, nothing can form for a few days due to higher pressures that are coming out in the Western Carribean. However, the moisture from the Pacific side might as some models are showing, swing northeast into the WC and possible form the forst depression or storm of the season. Most of the runs yesterday from the GFS had a hurricane hitting the Yucitan, then heading north into the GOM. The water tempuratures favor strengthening and if the GFS actually verifies, an anticyclone will form over the area. Now if we get an early storm does not mean we will have a hyperactive season, I'm really following the ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean. After 2005 and 2006, anything can happen, could be active or quiet. I'll have more info on the "possible" WC storm as more days pass and we know more about it. Comments anyone???

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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