News Talkback >> 2008 Storm Forum Previous   Index   Next   Flat

Ed Dunham Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017) Reged: Sun Posts: 2565 Loc: Melbourne, FL Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season       Mon May 26 2008 08:17 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Cieldumort 's post caught my attention and prompted a revisit of the latest 6-month SST forecasts. The rapid change in forecast ENSO SST anomalies continues. The current forecast would imply about a -0.4C Region 3.4 anomaly, but given the trend toward a rapid decline in the existing La Nina, the reality forecast is probably more like -0.2C for the May/June/July average anomaly. This meant that the analog years should be revisited - and what a change there as well. I could not find a significantly similar analog year that was a true good match for what has happened in the ENSO region this year, but the following years are best selections in priority order: 2001 - 15/9/4 - not as cold at start of year, but realistic for end of year. 1976 - 10/6/2 - probably too warm at end of year 1951 - 10/8/2 - not as cold at start of year 1989 - 11/7/2 - Remained cooler than currently expected during the season Based on the above, my first thought was to leave my earlier forecast of 12/7/3 intact, but with deference to 2001 I've upped my totals slightly to 13/8/3. Cheers, ED Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham Mon May 26 2008 08:17 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season cieldumort   Sun May 25 2008 06:32 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hootie Hoo   Mon May 26 2008 02:11 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Tue Apr 22 2008 07:38 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Tue Apr 22 2008 08:26 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season John C   Tue May 27 2008 06:51 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed in Va   Tue May 27 2008 07:37 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season GlenJohnson   Wed May 28 2008 07:49 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season MichaelA   Wed May 28 2008 12:05 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HCW   Sat May 31 2008 02:58 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Doombot!   Thu May 22 2008 04:30 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Lamar-Plant City   Fri May 23 2008 10:10 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Hobbyist   Sun Apr 13 2008 02:00 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season leetdan   Tue Apr 22 2008 11:15 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season DMFischer   Mon Apr 07 2008 11:36 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Sun Apr 06 2008 11:17 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Sat May 24 2008 12:57 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Ed Dunham   Mon May 26 2008 08:17 PM Outlook for the 2008 Season - June Update Ed Dunham   Fri Jun 06 2008 01:10 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season MikeC   Tue May 27 2008 10:43 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season ftlaudbob   Tue May 27 2008 03:28 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Clark   Sat May 24 2008 10:02 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season scottsvb   Sun May 25 2008 02:49 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season allan   Sat May 24 2008 01:45 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 09 2008 01:26 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season doug   Thu Apr 10 2008 03:39 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season beachcrafts   Fri Apr 04 2008 11:32 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Sat Apr 05 2008 10:28 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season madmumbler   Wed Apr 02 2008 06:06 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season typhoon_tip   Mon Mar 31 2008 11:28 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season twistergirl1980   Thu Mar 27 2008 04:32 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season bailey   Wed Mar 26 2008 11:20 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season jessiej   Mon Mar 03 2008 08:33 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Psyber   Fri Mar 07 2008 12:47 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season M.A.   Sun Mar 16 2008 02:53 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HURRICANELONNY   Sun Mar 16 2008 05:58 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season HanKFranK   Sun Mar 16 2008 07:45 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Tak   Sat Mar 22 2008 05:58 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Bloodstar   Mon Mar 03 2008 06:01 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season cieldumort   Wed Feb 27 2008 02:23 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Robert A   Mon Feb 25 2008 08:30 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Bulldg24   Sat Feb 23 2008 10:04 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Hunter   Sun Feb 24 2008 02:38 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season ftlaudbob   Mon Feb 25 2008 02:01 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Mon Feb 25 2008 03:59 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season clyde w.   Fri Jan 25 2008 05:18 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season doug   Fri Feb 01 2008 11:50 AM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season saluki   Fri Feb 01 2008 02:00 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Hurricane29   Fri Feb 01 2008 08:49 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Cat 5orBust   Sat Feb 16 2008 02:36 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Storm Cooper   Sun Jan 13 2008 05:55 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season Myles   Sun Jan 13 2008 06:59 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season NewWatcher   Mon Jan 14 2008 01:13 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season B.C.Francis   Tue Jan 15 2008 02:49 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season EMS   Tue Jan 15 2008 09:01 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season mrcorkdork800   Tue Jan 15 2008 11:17 PM Re: Initial Outlook for the 2008 Season allan   Wed Jan 16 2008 02:33 PM

Extra information 0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum. Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw  Forum Permissions       You cannot start new topics       You cannot reply to topics       HTML is disabled       UBBCode is enabled Rating: Thread views: 32612 Rate this thread Choose rating 1 star 2 star 3 star 4 star 5 star Jump to *News Talkback* -----   2024 News Talkbacks*General Discussion* -----   2024 Forecast Lounge   2024 Storm Forum   The Tropics Today   Other Storm Basins   Hurricane History   Hurricane Ask/Tell   Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions   Disaster Forum*General Discussion* -----   Comedy Shop   Everything and Nothing   Other Weather Events*Weather Bloggers* -----   Blogger Discussion   Resident Meteorologist Discussions   Weather Blog Bios/Links*Archives 2020s* -----   2022 News Talkbacks   2022 Storm Forum   2022 Forecast Lounge   2023 News Talkbacks   2023 Forecast Lounge   2023 Storm Forum   2021 News Talkbacks   2020 News Talkbacks*Archives 2010s* -----   2015 News Talkbacks   2015 Storm Forum   2015 Forecast Lounge   2017 Forecast Lounge   2013 Storm Forum   2013 Forecast Lounge   2012 Storm Forum   2012 Forecast Lounge   2011 News Talkbacks   2016 News Talkbacks   2017 News Talkbacks   2018 News Talkbacks   2019 News Talkbacks   2013 News Talkbacks   2014 News Talkbacks   2010 News Talkbacks   2010 Storm Forum   2010 Forecast Lounge*Archives 2002-2009* -----   2009 Storm Forum   2009 Forecast Lounge   2008 News Talkbacks   2008 Storm Forum   2008 Forecast Lounge   2007 News Talkbacks   2007 Storm Forum   2006 Storm Forum   2006 Forecast Lounge   2005 News Talkbacks   2005 Storm Forum   2004 News Talkbacks   2003 Storm Forum   2002 News Articles and Talkback   2002 Storm Forum

---

Mobile Home - Login - Normal Flhurricane Site
This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Generated April 28, 2024, 5:48:56 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center