FLHurricane.com: Quiet Mid June

It has been eleven days into the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and despite an early season storm in Arthur, it has been quiet, which is normal for this time of year.

It is rare to see a storm during the month of June. The climatology of this time of year, including the MJO (Madden-Julian oscillation) being negative for development now, makes conditions (atmosphere, water temperature, ect) generally poor for any type of tropical development.

If development were to occur in June, it's usually in the Southern Gulf of Mexico or in the Western Caribbean (where Arthur formed on May 31st). Last year also began with two early season storms as well, Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 9th, and Tropical Storm Barry on June 1st. There was no other tropical activity until July 30th.

As we look ahead to July, the area starts to widen mostly toward the eastern Caribbean and Atlantic east of the Caribbean. Usually storms do not get very large in July.

However, Dennis (formed July 4, 2005) and Emily (July 10, 2005) both became category 4 hurricanes in July and both were the strongest July Atlantic storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. (Dennis broke it first, followed by Emily topping Dennis.)
Dennis eventually made landfall as a weakening hurricane (Category 2 at landfall) just east of Pensacola on July 10, 2005. Emily moved into the Yucatan just south of Cozumel on July 18th, 2005 as a Category 4 storm.

Cape Verde Season (the time when storms form off of the coast of Africa) usually doesn't begin until Mid August, and this year looks like it won't be any different.

Right now nothing is going on in the tropics-- enjoy it because it may change later this season.

Edited by Jackie M (Sun Jun 15 2008 04:25 PM)

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