CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 6:58:28 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center