Latest IR and Watervapor runs at SSD are showing an impressive core developing over Grand Cayman. Very cold cloudtops. SSMIS (at NRL) just got a microwave overpass and doesn't show a consolidated internal structure yet, but with this large, deep convection now taking over, we could see rapid consolidation.
The model runs, such as the 06Z GFDL run, are locking onto the southern convective zone near central america that has just about died out now, rather than the one over Grand Cayman. The tracks from GFDL for that run take this system over the tip of the Yucatan. If one were to guess that the new center would track a similar, but parallel, path, we could extrapolate that the system would thread the area between the Yucatan and Cuba, keeping the core intact for entry into the gulf. I'm thinking, thus, that this storm may be more powerful than the various intensity models are showing, as they are based on tracking the wrong internal low of the system.
Reference:
IR (JSL colors)
IR (Funktop colors)
IR (AVN colors)
IR (Ramsdis area coverage)
Water Vapor
SSMIS data
Model tracks, using the southern core that is dieing (see Frame 3)
Edit: adding reference links
Our morning view of 94L:
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Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 20 2008 12:41 PM)
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