FLHurricane.com: On NHC Track Methodology

There was a considerable amount of (good) discussion tonight on the movement of TS Dolly as it closed in on the northern tip of the Yucatan.

Normally the six hour 'track averaging' method works quite well for the NHC, but on occasion it can get them into trouble since the atmosphere and its fluid dynamics can change in six hours. Its really a problem with being too rigid on continuity. It takes a certain knack to recognize when continuity is not working - and to adjust the forecast accordingly. Thunderstorms can't always be forecasted on continuity of movement - and neither can hurricanes all of the time. Because thunderstorm forecasts can be updated by the minute, its a lot easier. But when you are constrained by a two, three or six hour timeframe it gets tougher in certain circumstances to break the mold of tropical continuity. I've been to many a hurricane symposium where this very topic gets discussed, but the only viable solution always seems to be 'center relocation' on the next bulletin. Its those rare times, like Charley, when Emergency Management and media meteorologists have to ignore the official forecast in order to save lives. As a EM meteorologist I don't like to do it - but I will if the situation demands it.

My compliments to all of you that shared your thoughts this evening on this sometimes 'sticky' subject. For those of you who are meteorologists or those who might become one someday, remember that the public confidence in your forecast is often worth more than the forecast itself.
ED

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