FLHurricane.com: Area of Interest

Seems that TS Edouard is quite the chameleon.

Here's a wrap on the storms' progress so far, for those just tuning in.

After spinning up rather quickly to a tropical storm from what seemed like a very meager blob of convection and with a mostly exposed low level circulation center (LLC) ...

"WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF." (NHC's first advisory on the newly designated TS, quite an impressive start, I'm sure all would agree.)

... Edouard then staggered overnight because persistent Northerly shear kept the LLC too exposed for too long and, with the deepest convection displaced too far from the storm's center, it took it's eventual toll.

As LoisCane pointed out last evening ...

From last night's NHC's 11pm EST discussion ...

"CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER." (MSLP rose back to 1008 mb during this time)

And 6 hours later, from the 5am EST discussion ...

"NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ... IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

But since then ...

RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB.

And, even though the most recent advisory dropped the winds a tad to 40 Kts. (due to the overnight weakening, no doubt) ...

"SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS"

I've been watching the long-range Doppler radars and satellite loops, and there is no doubt that the deepest convection has been steadily overspreading the LLC, and is now finally wrapping around to the N and NW quadrants. And a clear 'eye-like' feature is now showing up quite nicely on Doppler radar.

"THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ... A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL ..."

I'm sure you all know where the TS Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been posted, so I won't elaborate here, but I encourage everyone in the affected areas to be aware and be prepared.

So, as Lois so eloquently pointed out, Edouard is "... still coming together."

That brings you up to date as of this writing. Turning this over now to the 'day crew' and look forward to reading all your posts later. (Hawaii is 6 hours behind Florida)

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