Wait a minute, the 2pm location is radically to the west of the prediction, and picking up speed. Double the disagreement with the NHC prediction of any other point during the life of the storm.
Not getting closer to Cuba, but twice the distance from it, on top of all that warm water.
At the current angle, it would miss Cuba and shoot the gap into the Gulf.
No doubt backroom noise, randomness and uncertainty is a lot of it, but this stands out like a sore thumb.
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Generated May 15, 2024, 11:36:34 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center