FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm (Hurricane) Gustav Forms in Central Caribbean 60MPH

2:00AM Update
Gustav will be upgraded to a hurricane with winds of 80MPH at the next advisory.

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR. THIS CHANGE WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 5 AM EDT ADVISORY.

2:00PM Update
Recon reports have confirmed Gustav has formed in the Caribbean with 60Mph winds. A special advisory will be arriving shortly.

All Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings mentioned earlier are now Hurricane Watches/Warnings.

More to come soon.

11:00AM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from santo domingo westward into Hati to Port Au Prince.

Tropical Strom watches are up from north of Port au Prince to the rest of Hati.

The forecast track has a great deal of uncertainty now due to model spreads, Two scenarios right now, a more northerly track, and one more Westward, the official forecast is somewhere in the middle, but the later days in the official track are highly uncertain (according to the National Hurricane Center).

This puts South Florida in the cone once again, but any potential effects would likely not be seen until the Weekend or early next week.

There is a good chance for strengthening in this system. The National Hurricane Center may change the track/intensity informaion after a recon aircraft investigates the depression later today.

9:50AM Update
Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the Caribbean from 94L, advisories and more to begin at 11AM this morning. Haiti and Jamaica are the most immediate concerns.

Original Update
A low pressure area (94L) in the Central Caribbean likely will become a tropical depression or storm Today. Satellite Estimated Dvorak T Numbers are about 2.5, which is enough to support a Depression or weak Tropical Storm, so chances are it could form at anytime today.

It's likely the Hurricane Center is waiting for Recon before updating since it appears a Low Level Circulation isn't easy to spot or find now, if there is one.

Those in Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas will need to watch this one.

Tropical Storm Warnings for Hispaniola may be issued later today.

Beyond that, Florida and the Gulf will want to watch the system, currently it is too early to say with any sort of confidence where this system may go or how strong. The only thing you can do now is watch the model trends.

More to Come Soon...

Discuss models and future possibilities for 94L in the lounge.

{{StormCarib}}

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{{StormLinks|95L|95|8|2008|3|Wave 95L}} 2:00AM Update

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 26 2008 03:29 AM)

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