MikeC
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Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Gustav Slowly Moving Northwest
Wed Aug 27 2008 08:05 AM
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Gustav has weakened since it has slowly crossed Haiti, and the land interaction along with moderate wind shear should keep it a tropical storm for a good part of today, however, the storm is moving generally northwestward. It still seems westward enough to keep it south of Cuba for most of the time in the shorter term track.
A Hurricane Warning remains for the eastern Cuban provinces, and a Hurricane Watch for the remainder of Cuba as well as the Caymans. Tropical Storm Warnings and a Hurricane Watch are up for Jamaica as well.
As Gustav moves westward south of Cuba, it will encounter very favorable water temperatures, so it has a chance to strengthen into a hurricane again, and possibly a strong hurricane. It may move a bit further westward and go through the Yucatan channel or clip the very western edge of Cuba, after this begins much more speculation. How much it strengthens while in the Caribbean depends on how much land interaction it has with Cuba (if it stays roughtly 50-60 miles or more off the coast, then it will likely strengthen more).
There remains the potential is there for Gustav to become a major hurricane when and if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.
The track beyond that is controlled by a low pressure trough around the Midwest, which could force the storm east or west of the current NHC forecast track. The more likely scenario of the two (right now) is the western one. This is forecast lounge territory though at this point. I suspect Gulf forecasts won't be all that reliable until Saturday.
Things could change, especially if Gustav moves more slowly than expected. so much of the Gulf will need to keep an eye on Gustav.
The wave known as 95L is also still worth tracking over the next few days, as it may get close to the US before turning more north.
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|2|Gustav}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|95L|95|8|2008|3|Wave 95L}} 2:00AM Update
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