FLHurricane.com: North of Antigua

There have been models and discussions about possible development off the east coast next week. Here is the
Wilmington NC take on it:

AN INTERESTING ASPECT TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SCENARIO IS HOW MANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL LOW COULD PICK UP
WHILE OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE HPC EXTENDED
DISCUSSION GIVES MORE DETAILS ABOUT POSSIBLE IMPACTS SHOULD AN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OCCUR. MORE MUNDANE TO CONSIDER...BUT
SITUATIONS SUCH AS THESE OFTEN WRAP CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH WHICH LIMITS THE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD PENETRATION OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW INLAND MAY MITIGATE THIS SOME...BUT MANY POSSIBILITIES
REMAIN OPEN. SINCE THIS IS STILL A 6 AND 7 DAY FORECAST WE HAVE ONLY
RAISED POPS 10-20% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL DETAILS CAN GET HAMMERED
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Here's the actual HPC discussion"

...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS PROVIDE IMPUT FROM 06Z GFS/DGEX AND
ECMWF ENS MEAN..CHANGES MADE ARE TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ECMWF BUT
WITH MODIFICATIONS TO ITS SFC PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS THE EAST
COAST DAYS 6 AND 7 MORE TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF OP MODELS TOWARDS
MORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SUBTROPICAL LOW/HYBRID TYPE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INCREASING THE WIND FIELDS TO FULL GALE OR STORM CONDITIONS
LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. DGEX AND
CMC INDICATE FULL BLOWN TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WHILE EVEN THE MOST
CONSERVATIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE AS DO THE ENS
MEANS. BELIEVE IT PRUDENT TO START LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT THREAT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A WESTERLY PHASE MJO
AND FAVORABLE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H250 AND H850
COVERING AN AREA INCLUDING THE TROPICAL EPAC/GULFMEX/CARRIBBEAN
AND OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH ATLC SEABOARD/BAHAMAS.

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Thu Sep 18 2008 03:15 PM)

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