Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Tropical Outlook For 2009
Sun Apr 05 2009 04:05 PM
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The ENSO forecast remains unchanged with Neutral to slightly above normal SST conditions expected in the tropical eastern Pacific, but the Atlantic outlook has changed with slightly below normal SST conditions expected for the entire hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic south of 20N, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Given the massive amount of Sahara dust currently blowing off of western Africa and extending all the way to northeastern South America, the cooler than normal SST forecast may well be justified.
1989 and 1996 now seem to be the best analog years. With ENSO Neutral conditions and a cooler tropical Atlantic, I've lowered my forecast for the season to 12/7/3 - a normal to just slightly above normal season. If the western African area remains dry and dusty into June, there would be a better probability for even lower numbers rather than higher ones.This thread will remain open though May 31st so that you can post your own forecasts and/or revisions.
TSR issues their Atlantic basin forecast on 4/6/09 and CSU follows with their forecast on 4/7/09.
Cheers,
ED
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