FLHurricane.com: Area of Interest

Disorganized tropical low off the northeast coast of Honduras near 17N 84.5W at 26/18Z with little movement - perhaps a NNW driift - windspeed at 20kts and pressure at 1008mb. Invest has a good convective envelope with outflow improving in the Northeast quadrant. SST is about 27C with 28-29C north of the system.

System is under modest Northerly windshear and that shear is expected to continue for the next 48 to 72 hours (perhaps even longer). Weak upper level flow is projected to be more to the North rather than the West. Given the shear, the current SHIPs intensity model seems overdone beyond the 72hr point. If the system develops further (about a 50/50 probability), forward motion should be more to the NNW then NNE and the system could pass through the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and the western tip of Cuba.

I'd anticipate that additional development would be slower in the SE Gulf of Mexico because of the persistent upper level windshear. Eventual track adjustments more to the right seem more likely than to the left. The first name on the list this season is Ana.
ED

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