Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Area of Interest - Invest 93L
Fri Jun 26 2009 06:19 PM
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"If the system develops further (about a 50/50 probability), forward motion should be more to the NNW then NNE"
The key word of course is 'If", but a system that develops is influenced more by the mid to upper level flow (in this case a weak southerly flow) rather than the low level flow of a disorganized easterly wave (in this case an east southeast to southeast flow).
Movement will also depend on how rapidly the ridge to the northwest of the system develops vs the trough to the northeast of the system. If the ridge prevails the system should move more to the northwest, however, if the trough prevails the system should eventually move more northeast. Currently the low level tropical model suite moves the system to the northwest whereas the deeper models (HWRF, GFS) that incorporate the upper level flow eventually move the system to the northeast. Hope that this helps.
ED
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