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MikeCAdministrator
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Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models
      Fri Aug 14 2009 08:14 AM

90L is likely to become TD#3 today, and some of the long range models are interesting. It's the lounge category because these models tend to get wacky at long range. Anything you see here past 4 days or so probably will not happen, but it's interesting to note the trends from day to day on these.

It may get near the US around August 24th.

I'll do a model rundown here:

CMC -- Out 6 days, approaching Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.
GFDL - Approaching just to the north of the LeewardIslands.
GFS - Into Leeward Islands... Through Puerto Rico, clipping Hispaniola, through the Straights of Florida into the Gulf and into Louisiana. (Fantasyland at that far out)

Strength wise it may get larger, weaken somewhat and then fluctuate. If it gets in the Gulf all bets are off, if it stays east, then it'll likely run into more shear but still be fairly large.


At this point I would take the models with a huge grain of salt. Around 15N 50W is a good aim point to determine how likely the Leewards and Puerto Rico will see the storm. If it's south or just at that point, it'll be more likely for them to see something.

There are other indication that the ridge may weaken, which would open a hole for it to recurve. (EURO/HRWF) as well. So in short at that far out it is anyone's guess.

Otherwise there is a good week to 10 days to watch this system.

Into the Caribbean is also a possibility.




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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 14 2009 08:14 AM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 16 2009 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 16 2009 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Hurikid   Sun Aug 16 2009 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 18 2009 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Wed Aug 19 2009 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MichaelA   Thu Aug 20 2009 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models doug   Thu Aug 20 2009 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Ed in Va   Thu Aug 20 2009 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models doug   Thu Aug 20 2009 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Ed in Va   Thu Aug 20 2009 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models doug   Thu Aug 20 2009 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 20 2009 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Ed in Va   Thu Aug 20 2009 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Bill Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models ftlaudbob   Thu Aug 20 2009 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Bill lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses ftlaudbob   Sun Aug 16 2009 12:15 PM
. * * Re: T.D. #2 - ......it's back again B.C.Francis   Sat Aug 15 2009 05:47 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models weathernet   Fri Aug 14 2009 04:45 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 14 2009 09:12 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 14 2009 12:37 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 14 2009 06:25 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Fri Aug 14 2009 07:17 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 15 2009 07:52 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Johncn   Sat Aug 15 2009 06:57 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Sat Aug 15 2009 07:20 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Johncn   Sat Aug 15 2009 07:51 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Sat Aug 15 2009 10:08 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Johncn   Sat Aug 15 2009 11:14 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Hurikid   Sun Aug 16 2009 08:38 AM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models weathernet   Sun Aug 16 2009 12:56 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models ftlaudbob   Fri Aug 14 2009 12:59 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Fri Aug 14 2009 02:41 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 14 2009 02:46 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Fri Aug 14 2009 02:49 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 14 2009 02:50 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Fri Aug 14 2009 02:53 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models saluki   Fri Aug 14 2009 03:20 PM
. * * Re: 90L Lounge Best Guesses and Long Range Models Evan Johnson   Fri Aug 14 2009 03:39 PM

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