Well, simply to toss my 2 Cents in, i'll venture to say that I think US landfall at or south of the Carolina Outer Banks seem like a significant possibility. Very hard to contradict NHC track reasoning, except that subtle differences in forceast could affect longer term motion. For one, all Global forecasts indicate a westward migration of the 500mb flow. The latest GFS 0Z 500mb forecast even indicate a weak reastablished east/west ridge around 25N and 75W, in time. How established or migratory will these rising heights be is a guess right now. Main concern is that I believe Erika's motion could be even slower and more eratic than currently forecast. If this occurs, might later term steering tend to cause late cycle model forecasts to bend back a bit more westward?
As for increasing shear in about 48 hours, I don't buy it. I do see how forecast maps indicate a westerly Caribbean feed which then seems to merge into an overall anticyclonic flow over the Western Atlantic, however it would appear to me that part of the increased gradient itself, might be some degree of a reflection of the very outflow of what might be a well established upper high over the storm itself. At this stage, I would disagree with intensity forecast, and believe Erika will attain Hurricane intensity in 12-24 hours.
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go?
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