FLHurricane.com: Tropical Depression 8 Forms! Tropical Storm GRACE in the Making ??

Yep. It seems as though Invest 99L is now organizing rather quickly.

The wave that was to become Invest 99L has just been tagged in the past few hours. (Thanks to Black Pearl) And at this rate, I expect *at least* a TCFA (tropical cyclone formation alert) to be issued by the end of the day, if not a bona fide Tropical Depression.

Additionally, the NHC has just 'upped' the chances for cyclogenesis to level 'Orange', or 30% to 50% chance in the next 48 hours, but personally I think it's at *least* 50/50 within 2 days, just judging on the rapidly improving satellite signature.

The following visible animated satellite loop shows this 'invest' organizing quite rapidly, with pronounced low-level cyclonic turning and several obvious 'spiral rainbands', or banding features, starting to wrap tightly around the vorticity center.

(As an aside, notice too, in the last few frames, a nice example of 'convective turret penetration', when the upper turrets of the strongest thunderstorms penetrate some distance into the stratosphere. And the low angle of the setting sun highlights them quite nicely with bright reflectivities on the sunny (western) side of the disturbance and deep shadows on the eastern side, making for excellent contrast and thus showing the penetrative turrets quite clearly.)

NOTE: In the 1/2 hour since I wrote the above paragraph, NHC has again bumped up the chances for significant development to 'Red', or at least 50% in the next 48 hours, but the TWO (tropical weather outlook) accompanying the upgrade hints at possible Depression Status *within 24 hours*, when upper level winds are expected to *temporarily* become less favorable for continued stregthening.

The long-term (currently) looks for strengthening to resume as upper level winds again become more favorable, certainly to at least tropical storm strength (if it doesn't happen within the next 24 hours), and from there who knows how strong 'Grace' might become or where she'll go and ultimately end up.

Although most models (currently) forecast the developing cyclone to first move north and then turn sharply south onto it's own track, both are unanamious in bringing it to at least storm intensity by the end of the 5-day model run.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this looks to be about the most organized thing that the Atlantic basin has seen since Fred languished, seemingly weeks ago.

About time we had a named storm! The PEAK of Hurricane Season came and went with NARY a Storm! Go figure?

Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri Sep 25 2009 06:00 PM)

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