An unnamed tropical storm of 40 Kt. intensity, currently referred to as '22W.TWENTYTWO' on the NRL Website, continues to organize in the very warm water WSW of Guam and the Marianas.

NRL Website for Tropical Cyclone '22W'

(You may notice Guam and the Marianas half way towards the upper right corner.)



The oceanic heat content is quite large in this vast expanse of ocean, and along with a very favorable upper level outflow pattern expected to develop, this as-yet-unnamed tropical cyclone is expected to 'take advantage' of all that potential heat energy, resulting in a Major Cat 4 Typhoon in a few days time, all the while on an apparent rendezvous with an already much besieged Northern Philippines.

(You may notice the Island of Luzon, in green, just to the left of the largest blue circle.)



Current prognostic reasoning indicates a slight weakening of the subtropical ridge to it's north in a few days that will help turn the by-then-typhoon towards the NNW allowing it gain a little more latitude, but then unfortunately, is then forecast to resume a largely westerly track towards a probable landfall squarely over Luzon, having likely strengthened by that time to a Major Cat 3 or Cat 4 Typhoon , or even possibly, (perish the thought!) Cat 5 Intensity.

The following is a paraphrased version of the latest prognostic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), now based in Pearl Harbor, on what is expected from 22W over the next 5 days.

Quote:

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" ... 22W is expected to continue tracking along the steering ridge ... environmental conditions will become even more favorable for development with increasing poleward outflow as the TUTT to the northeast moves westward and closer to the system and vertical wind sheer remains light.

Additionally, along 22W's track, SST's will further increase after about a day and a half. Beginning before the 3rd day, a weak mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest will cause a weakness in the steering ridge and jog the system more poleward in it's track.

After day 3, 22W will resume a more westward trajectory as a secondary and deeper ridge north of Taiwan will assume steering of the system. The environmental conditions will remain favorable for continued development, and the system is expected to exceed 100-knot sustained wind speed (or greater) by day 5.

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It remains curious to me why the JTWC hasn't named the storm yet, despite a 40 Kt. intensity for many hours now. Surely there must be a list of storm names at the ready.

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Quick update as of 9 AM Hawaii time, 3 PM Florida, October 15th, 2009:

22W Continues to slowly organize and intensify and now has 45 Knot (50 mph) sustained winds. Curiously, still no name has been assigned as yet, but it appears that "LUPIT" is next on the list, should they decide to go with that one.

The latest advisory now has 'Lupit' attaining 125 Knot strength (145 mph) as it draws ever closer to Luzon in about 5 days time, and considering the expected strengthening trend, it seems that 'Super Typhoon' status might be conferred before a possible landfall over Luzon.

The wee bit of good news, if you might call it that, is that the latest forecast track is slightly to the right of the previous few, so it remains to be seen whether 'Lupit' will make landfall or not, but it is still likely to have a major impact over Luzon, nonetheless, as the effects of tropical cyclones are far reaching, especially their torrential rains and associated flash flooding.

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More storm updates, graphics and analysis forthcoming as time permits ...



Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Oct 15 2009 03:38 PM)

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