FLHurricane.com: TD #20-E Expected to Deepen Explosively to Cat. 4

A tropical wave that crossed Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific a couple days ago has organized into Tropical Depression #20-E, about 375 miles SSE of Acapulco. Most of the global models have been forecasting tropical cyclone formation in this area for several days, and the storm seems to be consolidating nicely.

Nearly all models are expecting TD #20-E (which will likely be upgraded to Tropical Storm Rick later tonight or tomorrow morning) to intensify rapidly over the next 72 hours. The NHC is taking the intensity up to 115 kts. in 5 days. The NHC is usually pretty conservative with the intesity of newly-formed storms, and I don't know that I've ever seen them forecast category 4 intensity on the very first advisory. It is passing over some of the warmest water in the basin (over 30C) and shear looks very low, so these numbers look realistic, if not a little conservative.

Baja California is really going to have to watch this one. The official NHC forecast has 20-E about 350 miles SW of the southern tip in 5 days, and bending north. Past GFS runs have been taking it across Baja in the 6-7 day period. I would expect some recon aircraft will be flying into the storm at some point.

Post Extras