Since I last posted last week, Tropical Cyclone '3C' has formed in a monsoon trough ESE of the Hawaiian Islands that assumed the form of a cyclonic gyre (see my previous post for a description and the evolution of the cyclonic gyre and the formative processes leading to cyclogenesis).

From a recent visible animated satellite loop showing Major Cat 3 Hurricane 'Neki' at 100 Knot Intensity, WSW of the Hawaiian Islands slowing and on the verge of recurvature ...

(Note the Hawaiian Islands, in orange, to the right the steadily intensfying cyclone.)



The 11am Hawaii time (5pm EDT) Advisory came out about an hour ago, upgrading Hurricane 'Neki' (which sounds uncomfortably like 'Iniki', a Cat 4 storm that devastated Kauai in 1992) to MAJOR Cat 3 Status and at the same time revised the existing watches and officially issued the first hurricane warnings for portions of the 'Leeward Hawaiian Islands', as shown in the following map ...

Quote:

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AT 1100 AM HST, A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Another, 'Island Centered' view, showing Hurricane 'Neki' sliding into the picture from the left, as it slows and begins to show hints of recurvature ...



The big questions are ... How soon will recurvature begin (an easterly component in the direction of forward movement) and how *much* will 'Neki' eventually recurve?

>> More analysis and illustrations forthcoming ...

...

Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Oct 21 2009 06:59 PM)

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