FLHurricane.com: Alex Headed Toward Mexico

10:00 PM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Based on Recon Data and media mentions, Alex will be upgraded to Hurricane Status at 11PM tonight. This is the first June Atlantic Hurricane since 1995 (Allison), which was also the first hurricane to ever be tracked on flhurricane.

6:00 PM EDT Update 29 June 2010

Alex has yet to reach hurricane strength, but still may do so tonight. It is moving more rapidly to the northwest and west northwest tonight, and may reach the coast of Mexico tomorrow night.

Hurricane Warnings still reach into South Texas around Baffin Bay, and effects from the storm will certainly be felt there, mostly rain and some storm surge. The landfall point in Mexico is where most of the impact will be felt. For those asking about the impact on the oil spill, the waves kicked up will likely move the oil around a bit and possibly cause oil to wash up on beaches further east where it hasn't yet, but it is difficult to tell.

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Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion

Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars

{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite

Southeast Radar Composite (loop)

Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)

Local Media:

Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio

Webcams:
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams

7:00 AM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Tropical Storm Alex is just shy of hurricane strength, but is still trying to wrap in convection along the northwestern side of the storm, keeping it from intensifying all that quickly. The storm is still projected to make landfall south of the Texas/Mexico border.

Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings have not changed since last night. Hurricane Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up north of Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor, TX.

Those in the Hurricane Warning area should use today to prepare for tomorrow night. There is a possibility warning areas may expand as well.

The system is about to run into a strong ridge that will likely force it hard west, this morning it has picked up a little speed and is moving north northwest, a more westerly turn is expected today.

Landfall is still expected south of the Texas/Mexico border.

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Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion

{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite

Southeast Radar Composite (loop)

Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)

Local Media:

Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio

Webcams:
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams

10:45 PM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up north of Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor, TX.

The system has a pressure of 985mb, which could indicate that the storm is on it's way to hurricane status and may be so sometime tomorrow.

The current project landfall takes Alex just south of the Texas/Mexico border as a hurricane, bringing plenty of rain, wind, and storm surge to the area as it approaches and moves relatively slowly. For storm surge, the highest will be at and immediately north of the storm. For rain, most of the Rio Grande valley has the potential to see flooding rains, and winds depends on just how strong the storm gets before landfall.

Those in the Hurricane Warning Area need to prepare tomorrow and Wednesday and listen to local officials and media for any evacuation orders. The current forecasted timing puts conditions deteriorating in the warning area Wednesday afternoon and overnight.

Most of the models have converged in the warning area and may flip flop north and south of the border tomorrow.

4:30 PM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Baffin Bay, TX northward to Port O'Connor, TX (Roughly midway between Corpus Christi and Galveston), in addition to the Hurricane Watches that are up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz, Mexico.

Alex is expected to strengthen more tomorrow once it shakes the dry air and shear it currently is facing. The general thought of landfall in Mexico still has not changed, although the strong side of the storm may reach into South Texas.

The hurricane center may issue Hurricane Warnings for parts of the Hurricane Watch Area later tonight.

Those in the Hurricane Watch area should be starting preparations soon, and note there is a lot of rain potentially with Alex that could cause flooding problems around the Rio Grande valley even if it were to landfall south of the border.

11 AM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Hurricane Watches up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz, Mexico, as Tropical Storm Alex slowly strengthens.

Those in the watch area, Including Brownsville and South Padre Island, need to start preparations for possible hurricane conditions arriving on Thursday (early).

Landfall is currently most likely just south of the border, perhaps bringing the strong side of the storm into Brownsville. The Euro forecast model (EMWCF) suggests the system may slow down or stall right around the time of landfall.

Those in the cone of uncertainty (now including Corpus Christi) will need to watch the progress of Alex as well.

6:30 AM Update 28 June 2010
Not too much new with Alex this morning, a slow moving system that will likely strengthen slowly, and could rapid intensify really at any time, but it looks like it won't be today. There is a shot of dry air coming in from the northwest and higher than forecast shear that will likely keep strengthening on the slow side today, but otherwise conditions are favorable for strengthening. Alex may become a hurricane tomorrow.

Track wise the situation is more complex, still leaning toward eventually west in Mexico Thursday, but the slow movement is going to stay for today, waiting until Alex reacts or not to a weakness in the ridge.

It really boils down to, the stronger Alex gets the more likely it will head north, but if it remains a tropical storm longer the more likely it is to go further left (and south). As well as how much the ridge to the north develops.

Recon is approaching Alex now, and hopefully will have some good data in a few hours.

* Because of this, preparations wise, anyone in the Cone needs to watch and be prepared for the possibility of a hurricane heading your way late this week. If watches and especially warnings are issued in your area later this week start to take that plan into action. Watches may come as soon as tonight.

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Original Update
Tropical Storm Alex has regained some strength back over water and is now a Tropical Storm Again, with a pressure of 991 mb, low, but not relatively so to the surrounding area.

It has slowed down a great deal, the average speed of 7mph is probably less by now, even closer to stationary.

The general thought for the track is that it meanders gradually west and northwest. The models taking it further north appear to be outliers and the general track toward the Mexican coastline around Thursday is the current official track, and the confidence is a bit higher than earlier in the day. The track would take it midway between Tampico and the Texas/Mexico border. However all those in the forecast cone should watch Alex closely.

Intensity is the real question, it may take time for Alex to regain strength since it's so large, but it has a good head start. Conditions are good for a gradual intensification, if the core catches hold it may burst later, but some of the intensity models aren't suggesting it. It may gain strength earlier than projected. A stronger storm would allow it to nudge more northward, staying relatively weaker would probably indicate more westward, but still the general Northwest to West movement is what is expected.

So far it looks like Alex is on it's way to be stronger by the morning.

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