MikeC
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Colin Forecast Lounge
Sun Aug 01 2010 08:42 AM
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Here is the place to discuss long range models, and guesses regarding 91L.
RIght now a lot of people may feel inclined to fall back to the European model, which suggests the system moving through the northeast Caribbean and then through the Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Which is possible, but I'm not going to buy the Euro model on this system, it's a lot further east than the others and the environment is in a situation that the European model really doesn't handle quite as well.
In short, I wouldn't rely on it being close to correct right now that far out.
It does make the system worth watching for the east coast and Florida, and especially the Northeastern Caribbean.
Why am I thinking Florida right now? A possibly key may be the presence of two upper ridges, one west of Bermuda and another over the southern plain states. If a weakness exists offshore the Carolinas, that would be what drags the wave more northerly, and if it misses the northeastern Caribbean, would be the cause. What's not happening there would likely be enough to continue to pull it out to sea. What happens after that is the weakness gets plugged, which completes the ridge and generally drags it more westward, which is why those in Florida would want to watch it. Chances for a gulf impact are low currently, but not non-existent.
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