FLHurricane.com: Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Central Atlantic

I did a little more research and I guess that its possible, but the wave in the far southeastern Caribbean Sea that is close to the coast of South America would really have to move along at a rapid pace. At 500MB the GFS does develop a feature along the coast of Columbia near the Venezuelan border at the 36-hour point - and it is this developing upper low that the model tracks toward Louisiana. This is roughly the same location where the model picks up a surface feature as well. If the high pressure system firmly in place in the south central U.S. pulls to the east then I guess that could allow a system to move north through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf on the western edge of the high pressure system.

Possible, yes - but thats a lot of 'if's' for something that would be a week away. Worth keeping an eye on though - especially in a couple of days. Note that the earlier 12Z run of the CMC took the same system into Belize (based on the high pressure ridge remaining in place to the north).
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 02 2010 08:50 PM)

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