FLHurricane.com: Tropical Depression 5 Falls Apart

5 PM EDT Update 10 August 2010
The National Hurricane Center issued it's last advisory on Tropical Depression 5, it will just be a rain maker along the northern gulf coast.

A couple of other areas are worth watching, although they may not hold together. Tropical wave with active convection and slightly better organization located near 13.5N 58.5W at 11/21Z is moving west at about 15 knots. A convective flareup located southwest of Invest 93L near 23N 60W at 11/21Z is moving to the west northwest.

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6:30AM EDT Update 10 August 2010
Tropical Depression Five hasn't organized overnight, but may later today. Odds favor the system making landfall as a Tropical Storm in eastern Louisiana or Mississippi sometime overnight Thursday into Friday.

The system has pulled in quite a bit of dry air overnight and is even a bit weaker than yesterday currently, but can recover.

There is an outside chance that the system can strengthen beyond that, but unless it changes drastically today or tomorrow, it doesn't look like that will happen. If it does strengthen it would likely be just before landfall. Therefore those in the warning area will need to pay close attention to local media and officials. But, again, odds are It likely will be mostly a rain maker.

Also forward motion of the storm is forecast to slow down, perhaps dramatically, which could extend the system's time over the Gulf and perhaps landfall a bit east of that. If it slows down enough it may loop over land and wind up back over the gulf briefly.

If the track were to change it would more likely wind up more easterly than it is now.

The wave in the central Atlantic, (93L) still has a good chance to form, but has not yet, it would stay out to sea.

Another wave east of the Caribbean has a very low chance (10%) of developing in the short term, but will need to be watched if it persists.

8PM EDT Update 10 August 2010
Invest 94L has developed better structure and has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 5. The TD is forecast to move northwest with NHC initial landfall projection into the Louisiana delta Thursday morning as a 40 knot Tropical Storm.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued as follows:

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS."

Residents along the northern Gulf coast should monitor the progress and development of this system.
ED

7PM EDT Update 10 August 2010
The area in the Gulf is likely to become the 5th tropical depression of the season tonight, best track has renumbered it to 5, and advisories may begin soon at 8PM EDT 7PM CDT, at latest by 11PM EDT.

Those in the northern Gulf of Mexico will want to watch the system in the southeastern Gulf.

7AM EDT Update 10 August 2010
This morning, the area in the Central Atlantic (93L) is still looking like it may develop, but it just hasn't yet. It will stay out to sea.

The area in the southeastern Gulf, (94L) is something that may develop during the week, those along the northern central and northwestern Gulf Coast will want to watch, the good news is dry air to the northwest is keeping the system down and weaker for the moment. Most likely it will hit land as a Tropical Storm, but the further westward it makes it the more time it would have to strengthen.

If that happens, then a strengthening tropical storm/cat one hurricane could be approaching the coast. So those in the northern Gulf must keep a close watch on this system. The timing would be on Friday.

Odds favor somewhere in Louisiana as a tropical Storm, around 50-60mph winds, possibly stronger if the system reforms a bit westward.

Original Update
Lots of little sparks of potential but the Atlantic is just too hostile for anything to get organized. Upper level shear has relaxed considerably in the Gulf, the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic south of 20N, but low-level easterly shear is tearing apart tropical waves before they even leave the west coast of Africa.

Invest 94L off the southwest Florida coast near 26N 82.5W at 09/18Z and drifting to the west southwest. The system is poorly defined with convection displaced to the south. Only a modest chance for additional development, but because the area is close at hand it deserves some attention.

A very small feature is located in the central Caribbean Sea midway between Aruba and the Dominican Republic near 15N 70W at 09/22Z. The system has pulsating convection and is moving to the west northwest at 7 knots. Small systems are fragile and can get very strong or fall apart in a short period of time. The system remains in a favorable environment for development.

Invest 93L is in the central Atlantic near 23.7N 49.9W at 09/22Z and the system is moving southwest at about 5 knots. If it had developed it would have pulled off to the northwest, but the weak circulation has moved away from its limited convection well to the northeast of the center. The wave has encountered dry air and is very disorganized – if this system develops (and I’m not so sure that it will) its going to take quite awhile to do so.

Finally, a tropical wave southeast of the southern Cape Verde Islands is being consumed by the SAL. Lots of places to watch, but no immediate concerns.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 11 2010 05:22 PM)

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