Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Too soon?
Wed Aug 11 2010 11:31 PM
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Actually CSUs forecast is for 18/10/5, i.e., they expect 15 more named storms. Here is the link:
CSU August Forecast for 2010
NOAAs updated forecast was for 14-20/8-12/4-6 (which is quite a range - makes your forecast rather easy to hit I guess).
No, its not unreasonable. The standard argument has been 'look at 1969' - which was quite a different setup, i.e., 1969 was an El Nino year for the entire year. The real question may well be "At what point into the season does is become unlikely?" - and I don't have a good answer for that one - yet.
Perhaps I missed it, but I don't recall seeing anybody say that the season was going to be a bust. Note that we close out our annual seasonal forecast exercise around the first of June each year. Its posted in the Storm Forum.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 11 2010 11:46 PM)
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