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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Too soon?
      Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM

Ok - I've done a little research and here is a partial answer. Of the 16 most active seasons since 1885 (see the Met Blog for years) with 14 or more named storms, the average date for the fourth storm of the season was August 2nd. The five seasons that had the latest start date for the 4th storm were:

1969 (18 storms) 8/14
2000 (15 storms) 8/19
2001 (15 storms) 8/22
1998 (14 storms) 8/24
1953 (14 storms) 8/28

With no storms on the horizon for the next few days, the statistical (and climatological) likelihood of 16 or more named storms for this season is just about zero, however, a total of 14 or 15 named storms this year is still statistically possible.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Too soon? Doombot! Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? cieldumort   Sun Sep 12 2010 02:58 PM
. * * Unofficially TD5 became a Tropical Depression Thursday berrywr   Fri Aug 13 2010 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 11 2010 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 12 2010 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? berrywr   Fri Aug 13 2010 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Tazmanian93   Thu Aug 12 2010 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 12 2010 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Doombot!   Thu Aug 12 2010 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 13 2010 01:31 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 13 2010 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? MichaelA   Fri Aug 13 2010 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? ChrisS   Thu Sep 09 2010 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2010 12:18 PM
. * * Admin Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 12 2010 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? MichaelA   Thu Sep 09 2010 02:28 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? ChrisS   Sat Sep 11 2010 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? cieldumort   Sun Sep 12 2010 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? ChrisS   Sun Sep 12 2010 11:05 AM
. * * Igor's path ftlaudbob   Fri Sep 10 2010 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Too soon? MichaelA   Thu Aug 12 2010 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Too soon? Lamar-Plant City   Thu Aug 12 2010 11:17 AM

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