FLHurricane.com: Tropical discussion 8/23/2010

I've looked at the 23/12Z package and in the here and now there is no activity in the GOM that is tropical. The global models have performed exceptional in regards to this solution for the past several days. A reinforcing "dry" cold front is expected in the Southeast which will clear the SE except FL.

Last week all the discussions were hinting at the possibility of something developing along the shear axis of the developing pattern that is now underway with a cutoff low off DELMARVA and a shear axis between the Mid-Continental Ridge which is currently retrograding to the SW US and the Bermuda ridge once again establishing itself to the east with a trough dividing them deep into the GOM.

Currently at 500 millibars the long wave trough inverts and is located as far west as the Central GOM. Models take this inverted trough almost to the TX coast in H+48 hours and at H+60 hours splits the system as the cutoff low along DELMARVA opens up and a trough extends itself well into the Deep South. Models have a surface low off the coast of LA and is picked up by the departing long wave trough as a ridge re-builds over the Eastern US.

As aggravating as this sounds, it's not clear given the evolving upper air pattern if this will begin as a tropical system or ever be one.

Edited by berrywr (Tue Aug 24 2010 08:24 PM)

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