Some convective activity is beginning on the south of the center, and one cell is fighting shear on the east. The west side is clearly is where the moisture is. If this system can generate and maintain convection on the south and moisten up its east side and if shear from the east relaxes, it can develop.
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Generated May 16, 2024, 5:07:36 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center