FLHurricane.com: Matthew Forecast Lounge

Last night's Euro seems to have a logical solution to 95L. Perhaps rather than a system already well developed in the W. Caribbean, then turning NNE ahead of a significant "fall like" short wave, I believe 95L may well remain an open wave or possibly develop into a Tropical Depression, all the while continuing further westward over Central America. Though a discernible LLC may continue to exist for days over land, such land interaction will hinder any significant development. Though this entire "blob" could feel some northward tug by mid/upper steering associated with a fairly sharp short wave or cutoff low, I do not believe that an already well developed storm will be pulled northward from the W. Caribbean, but perhaps rather a large broad low pressure area - more or less as the 0Z Euro might indicate. Granted, such an evolution could lead to eventual development in the Southeast Gulf; in fact I think probably will. With the westerlies pretty far the north, I would think that any significant short wave that might play a short term role in helping to lift 95L into the southern Gulf, will be eventually replaced with at least weak ridging, and thus possibly steering a significant threat northwest ( or at least NNW ) towards points between the Lousiana/Texas border and perhaps Pensacola.

Next plausible scenario is a system which remains low latitude and eventually migrates into the BOC, again posing threat to N. Mexico or perhaps Brownsville.

Perhaps because of the fact that this is a low latitude broad system , has not yet consolidated at the surface, and given that we are perhaps at least a few weeks away from the lower level steering beginning to slacken, there would seem to be a limited period of time for significant development to occur ( as well as any associated NW pull given a deeper system ). What I just do NOT see happening, is what earlier runs of the GFS were indicating with perhaps a worse case scenario which would be a large storm to develop prior to landfall, and if only "clipping" Central America remaining under diffluent upper air all the while. Now, should a storm move towards the N.W. or North, and then as the same progressive trough which aided in lifting the storm into the S.E. Gulf just as quickly depart and more or less leave a sprawling and deepening hurricane in a COL......, well then we'd really have some areas of W. Cuba or perhaps the Florida Keys receiving lashing winds for a protracted period of time AND copious rain for days over a large area. Then, everyone from Brownsville to Key West would be waiting to see if an eventual building ridge drives the storm westward or some eventual short wave finally enhancing the flow to steer the storm north or N.E.'ward.

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