Funny as it sounds...., I'd say that "anything could happen" is a pretty fair appraisal of 95L. Differing models seem to be fluctuating with regards to their own respective forecasts. As of this a.m., most recent GFDL model is suddenly more "bullish" that ever and brings a powerful hurricane near or over South Florida, while the HWRF which has consistently re-curved this system out of the Caribbean and seemingly towards Florida or the southeast Gulf, now keeps 95L far to the south and into the BOC. The global GFS and Euro have been "generally" consistent with their own overall solution, though their intensity forecasts have been up and down.
As of this writing, we do not have an organized deep systems, so models really cannot be relied upon for too much accuracy and to an extent are basically attempting to forecast a "what if" scenario.
With edit to my own post........case in point! In error I realized that it was last night's GFDL 0Z run that very aggressively develops 95L, and just a quickly the 6Z has backed off a lot and track appears more ambiguous.
Edited by weathernet (Thu Sep 23 2010 08:40 AM)
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