The 12Z Euro seems to move Matthew into Central America and lose track of it, then develops another system over the Caribbean which moves northward. The 18Z GFS seems to keep some version of Matthew alive, first over the BOC and then back over the western Caribbean, and develops another system further east over the Caribbean, which eventually slingshots to the north around Matthew, which basically moves slowly and erratically (with a general trend to the NE) to the end of the forecast run. Both models have indicated a very large circulation developing in the 7-10 day timeframe, which is tropical (warm core) in nature but with the potential for some baroclinic interaction.
Both of these model solutions are pretty anomalous and in remains to be seen how things develop down the road.
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Generated May 14, 2024, 3:36:45 PM EDT
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