Well I for one, feel that whatever impact caused by Paula is in the "near term" rather than long term. Meaning, regardless whether Paula were to stall just south of Cuba, just east of Yucatan, or even 150 miles west of Key West....if significantly dryer air ushers in behind the anticipated front this weekend, than this ( along with shear ) will likely mean Paula's demise.
The risk is however, should Paula continue to intensify and perhaps approach Major Hurricane status, such conditions could threaten Yucatan, Western Cuba, and yes....South Florida prior to such infiltration of cooler dryer air.
Too early yet to say what impact upper level winds will have on Paula in 3-4 days, however 0Z NOGAPS brings Paula to the Florida Straights as does GFDL. Will be watching closely over the next few runs to see if NHC starts to carry Paula more northward into the S.E. Gulf, rather than start a meandering eastward motion south of Cuba. I am starting to consider more likely that this deepening system will continue NNW/Northward with a more "poleward" advance and potentially pass west of W. Cuba, and then move N.E. with the increasing southwesterly flow aloft. Not to sure if upper air will compromise Paula's strength at such a time or not though.
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