Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Paula Forecast Lounge
Tue Oct 12 2010 07:07 PM
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You are correct in that there are still not any good answers yet. It has certainly intensified more that some of us had anticipated, and the ultimate solution may well be long-term rather than short term. There seems to be a tendency to 'exit stage right' rather rapidly with this hurricane, but that may not happen. The GFS, which has done rather well this year, has been keeping this system around in the western Caribbean for an extended period, and the 12/18Z run is no exception - its worth taking a look at it. Generally it takes Paula across western Cuba and shoves it (significantly weakened) south into the western Caribbean Sea, regenerates it back where it started off the northeast coast of Honduras. Then its back across western Cuba again and, with a change in the upper air environment - well, take a look - it will surprise you. Its a long way out and I'm not buying into that solution (unless its the same solution next week) 
ED
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