Trust me, the NHC does "pay attention" to model support. That said, just like you and I...., certainly something to watch for but beyond that, nobody is going to go out and put up the 'ol shutters, fill the gas tank, etc. The very fact that the same conducive conditions prevail ( warm SST's, low pressure, light upper level winds, etc ), while in a year that also supported the development of previous systems this year, then mix in the La Nina variable which would lend to potential for late season storms........., at minimum would make me think that given the short term 60-96 hour forecast time frame would indicate a better than 50/50 chance of "something" developing.
At the moment, Nogaps, NAM, Canadian, are in some degree of agreement with the GFS. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ( which has not shown new development here thus far ) comes on board too.
I have come to the conclusion though, that where I may place more trust into an alliance of model support indicating cyclogenesis, in no way can one anticipate accuracy of strength this far out - and absolutely cannot buy into any degree of accuracy regarding exact track. This said, because the Euro tends to be somewhat more conservative in developing "ghost systems", and my perception of its better global handle on "the big picture" , I will tend to pay greater attention when it continues to advertise development ( with other model support ), and give some credence to the Euro's forecast storm track and motion. If the Euro consistently anticipates a strong storm to approach and we are within a window of 120 hours or so........, I start to count how many cans of spagetti-O's we have on hand! 
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: GFS for mid week
Edit
Reply
Quote
