FLHurricane.com: Modest Chance for Development of West Caribbean Wave

6:30 AM EDT Wednesday, October 20 2010 Update

The wave in the western Caribbean (tracked as 99L by the Navy) is northeast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to form into a relative small tropical depression or storm today. If it does it will likely stay in the Caribbean and possibly eventually drift back northwest and into the Yucatan or Belize. A blocking high pressure will likely keep it out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Those in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, West Cuba, Belize, Caymans, and Nicaragua/Honduras will want to keep a close eye on the system.

Chances are about 70% today and tomorrow for development, development is most likely between 11AM-5PM today.

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5PM Eastern Time Update
Recon has found a reasonably well-formed, but broad, closed low level circulation within Invest 99L, and the NHC now expects a 70% chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours, which could be conservative.

Original Post
The wave in the west Caribbean, being tracked by the Navy as 99L, is continuing to sit offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras. This system isn't expected to move much and has about a 30% chance for development over the next few days.

Those in Belize and the Yucatan have to watch it closely since the most likely outcome is that it drifts northwest then westward into land there. If it develops and continues to slowly move it is possible for it do become a tropical storm.

The pattern north of it will likely keep it out of the Gulf, so the only other areas that may want to watch 99L right now is the Caymans, and perhaps Western Cuba. Belize, and the Yucatan remains the most likely locations to be impacted by 99L.

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