Last paragraph, and more specifically the last sentence, of the Discussion is an early morning eye-opener.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND CONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS BECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD LATER ON.
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Generated May 15, 2024, 5:01:04 PM EDT
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