FLHurricane.com: Area of Interest

Ed, there will be a change in the weather pattern as the trough over the east lifts out and is replaced with a strengthening upper ridge; a pattern typically seen in the middle of summer and something we haven't seen around here in a while...a "Bermuda" ridge. I'm not going to speculate on track until it clears the Yucatan. I do believe a more northerly track is likely given the strength of the ridge in the upcoming days. As of this typing, I haven't looked at the entire 12Z ensemble; I'm out of town this week, however I will look at today's and tonight's data and get with you later. Now...everybody else...please keep all the nightmare scenarios to a minimum. I have no idea where it's going when at best we're still several days away from grasping when and where. Is it likely there will be a landfall in the USA; yes! It has to be remembered that the SE USA and FL have been quite cool of late and dry with many areas are experiencing varying levels of drought. It is expected SSTs near the coast will be equally cool. We're about 72 hours away from knowing when and where in broad strokes.

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