The GFDL is putting it right on Tampa Bay early Tuesday morning (late Monday night) with 100 mph winds while the HWRF places it at Punta Gorda at the same time with 80 mph winds. Of course that will change from run to run. If that track begins to be supported by the other models and becomes more consistent, then we begin to worry and start our preparations. Right now, it's just enough of an "if" to get my attention and put me into a "wait and see" mode.
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Generated May 14, 2024, 9:41:13 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center