FLHurricane.com: Initial Outlook for the 2011 Atlantic Season

As the current season draws to a close, its time for a look ahead to the expected level of tropical storm and hurricane activity for 2011 in the Atlantic basin. La Nina is firmly in place in the eastern Pacific ENSO regions and it has the potential to remain in place throughout most of 2011. The biggest change from 2010 to 2011 is that SSTs in the eastern tropical Atlantic are expected to be cooler than normal during the 2011 hurricane season. The cooler sea surface temperatures will mean that the uncommonly high storm activity of 2010 will not continue into the 2011 season. The best analog years for 2011 seem to be 1989, 1974, 1999 and 1971 (in that order).

My initial 2011 outlook for the Atlantic basin is for 13 named storms with 7 hurricanes and 3 of those becoming major hurricanes - which would still be a slightly above average year. This thread will eventually transfer into the Storm Forum for next season, but feel free to add your own thoughts and numbers for the 2011 season. There will be plenty of time to adjust your seasonal totals before next June.
Cheers,
ED

(Edit: Corrected Storm Total error and added 1971 as an additional analog year.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Dec 09 2010 07:10 PM)

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